1.08.2010

Today I learned a few more numbers to watch in order to fully understand the reliability of the U.S. employment number that is released on the 1st Friday of every month. I'm not sure if these numbers are truly reliable in the first place since there are so many revisions to the prior 3 months every time the number is released, but we'll save that argument for another day.

Of course the 2 main numbers I already focus on are 1. unemployment rate (currently 9.975%) and 2. change in non-farm payrolls (currently -85,000). This means that the US unemployment rate is 9.975% and 85,000 new workers lost their job Dec, 2008. **All newly released numbers are from the prior month**

What I did learn today (Hat tip Barry) was 4 more numbers to look at that paint a "better" picture of employment or lack there of. Notice I use the word "better".

These include: A) Temp help B) Hrs. work C) Wages D) change in NILFs ("not in labor" Essentially, these are people that have given up looking for a job)

Conclusions to draw are as follows.
A) Temp help numbers give one an understanding of employers "testing" the economic strength by hiring temp workers (cheaper to do this as an employer). So, if this number is increasing, employers are testing the economic strength.
B) If Hrs. work are increasing, employers are more confident in an economic recovery..sensing increasing future customer demand for products and services.
C) Wages is simply the relation of supply (jobs offered by employers) vs. demand (jobs wanted by unemployed)
D) NILFs is key. If this is increasing, that means more unemployed have given up on searching for a job. Not a good sign of course.

**Note: for full understanding, one would have to look at relations and trends of these statistics over a variety of time frames, but this is a good start to get a "better" handle/understanding of the employment numbers.

Good Fortune!